Malaria R&D Funding Needs 2021-2030

In 2020, the WHO Global Malaria Programme (GMP) initiated a review and update of the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria: 2016-2030 (GTS). They commissioned us to undertake a cost modelling exercise to review and update the malaria R&D funding estimates that were included in the original GTS.

We modelled both minimum and maximum funding needs scenarios for the overall malaria R&D funding needs, as well as for each product type.

A total of $8,515m (range: $6,952m–$10,078m) is projected to be needed for research and development during the period 2021-2030, representing an average annual investment of $851m ($695m–$1,008m). This is 20% higher than the previous estimate for the same period of $7,090m ($5,530m–$8,651m). Much of this increase, however, is driven by new priority areas not included in the previous cost modelling, such as biologics and endectocides. Actual annual global investment in malaria R&D from 2016-2018 followed the required trend identified by the previous funding need estimate, although it reached only the minimum bound of the forecast range.

Investment at this level should be expected to achieve the stated targets for drugs, endectocides, diagnostics and vector control products by 2030, as well as to advance the vaccine and biologics R&D pipelines towards their targets as rapidly as possible, though additional investment will be required beyond 2030. It would also sustain funding for malaria basic research between 2021-2030 at levels consistent with the last twelve years of available funding data for this category (2007-2018).

The largest funding need is for vaccines ($2,715m, 32% of overall funding), followed in order by basic research ($1,904m, 22%), drugs ($1,609m, 19%), vector control products ($1,082m, 13%), biologics ($759m, 8.9%), endectocides ($259m, 3.0%), and diagnostics ($187m, 2.2%). At the target level, the cost of advancing vaccine Target 3 (transmission-blocking vaccine for Plasmodium falciparum (SSM-VIMT)) represents the highest funding need at $1,013m between 2021 and 2030, which is 37% of the total funding need for vaccines and 12% of the overall malaria R&D funding need.